Play Devil’s Advocate, just for a second, for the sake of assessing Hillary Clinton 2016 chances of being elected President. Suppose that Donald Trump holds the line and wins the Republican nomination. Assume Clinton withstands Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ surge and the possible entry of Vice President Joe Biden.


Realistically, what are the prospects for Clinton’s 2016 presidential run against the boisterous billionaire?


Virtually Identical?

 Hillary Clinton 2016 chances

According to a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, the two match up head-to-head at 46-43 percent and well within the margin of sampling error. Looking deeper, Clinton soundly leads adults 51-39 percent, but that news isn’t as promising as it sounds. She currently leads among the groups least likely to be registered to vote. Meanwhile, Trump is holding on with an anti-establishment and anti-immigration persona that has captivated media attention since August.


Meanwhile, among registered voters, Trump is presenting himself as independent of the political establishment’s perceived poisons and dominating Clinton by a 64-25 percent margin among voters craving an outsider, but also by 49-38 percent among voters who don’t trust career politicians.


The news gets better for Trump from there:


  • A 73-14 percent lead among voters favoring his immigration platform
  • 74-13 percent who disapprove of President Obama
  • 52-36 percent among white voters
  • 68-22 percent among conservatives


Take this into account, as well: registered voters skew slightly 45-40 percent identifying as Democrats, as opposed to those who either identify or lean Republican. Among that slightly winning percentage, 82 percent of Democrats, or those who lean left, support Clinton. By comparison, 76 percent that favor the right backed Trump.


Of course, keep in mind, these polls are conducted so early, they might as well be meaningless. In American politics, 14 months constitutes a lifetime – more than enough of a span for a Hillary Clinton presidential run or a Donald Trump campaign to turn dramatically either way.

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